Enfin toujours connaître le niveau d'invalidation de sa position.
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Le cac en ce début de semaine confirme le pivot hebdo baissier, repasse sous sa mm200 à 3221 ce jour et commence une impulsion du haut du canal baissier LT.
En swing le stop est à 3 245, en Intraday Ut 15 mn 3 160.
Impulse en weekly :
| Date | Achat | Neutre | Vente | Pression LT | Pression Short | |
| 14/11/08 | 15,0 | 50,5 | 34,5 | 30,38 | 69,62 | |
| 21/11/08 | 0,0 | 14,2 | 85,8 | 0,00 | 100,00 |
Les semaines passent et toujours la même dynamique baissière.
L'indicateur est à nouveau en pression short à 100 %
avec 0 % à l'achat - 14,20 % en neutre et 85,80 % à la vente
La tendance générale est on ne peut plus vendeuse. Toutefois le support oblique TLT pourrait permettre un rebond sur qq semaines danc ce marché baissier ( ce n'est pas écrit dans le
marbre).
Friday, November 14, 2008
PAUL KANGAS: My guest "Market Monitor" this week is Stan Weinstein, editor and publisher of "Global Trend Alert," a financial advisory service for institutional investors. And Stan welcome back
to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.
STAN WEINSTEIN, EDITOR & PUBLISHER, "GLOBAL TREND ALERT": Always my pleasure to be back, Paul.
KANGAS: When you were last with us in September of 2007, too long ago, the Dow was at 13, 400. You said the bull market was no longer healthy and warned if it broke below 12,800 on the Dow, bear would emerge and that was a great call. Congratulations.
WEINSTEIN: Thank you very much.
KANGAS: Now the question is: can you tell us if the market is in the bottoming process and ready for buying?
WEINSTEIN: Process is the right word. It takes time. So I think the process has started, but long-term, we're still bearish. I don't think that the bear has breathed its last. Short-term is a different thing. Short-term I think you may have hit a low this past Thursday and I'll give you two numbers to watch, but this is trading. If the Dow can close above 9800, I think for the first time in a heck of a long time, we'll get a good short- term rally. If it doesn't happen, conversely instead you close around 7800, another down leg.
KANGAS: What moving average is the most important one to follow under these conditions?
WEINSTEIN: There are two that I especially focus on. For long-term investing, I think the 200-day moving average is key. But for trading, I think the 50-day moving average is important. So I wouldn't use one. I'd combine the two together.
KANGAS: What stock groups do you think will lead the market higher when that time comes?
WEINSTEIN: We should only get there. I think that two groups - they're not bullish yet, but two groups which I think have seen their bear market lows, irrespective if the Dow goes there, are the airlines and the banks which you know I was bearish on before. Some select regional banks and some airlines and some select healthcare stocks look like they're starting to base, but they're not yet officially bullish. They're basing.
KANGAS: Back in September of last year, you didn't like the retailers, either and look what's happened then. There must be a time to buy.
WEINSTEIN: Well again, very, very split groups. Some retailers selectively are bullish, but there's a lot of retailers - when the charts are doing their thing, you've got to look chart by chart.
KANGAS: What else would you stay away from in the way of stock groups?
WEINSTEIN: There is no longer such a matter of groups because the groups (INAUDIBLE) like the oils, the fertilizers, they've destroyed them. But there are a lot of individual stocks that aren't too late to sell and here's where the charts do their think. If you have a stock that's close to its 200-day moving average starting to break down, I think that's still saleable, but (INAUDIBLE).
KANGAS: As you know, the G-20 leaders are meeting in Washington this weekend. What would you like to come out of that summit on the financial crisis?
WEINSTEIN: First of all, I'm a cynic, so I don't expect too much. But secondly, I'm a technician so I care less about what they say and it's how the market reacts to the news more than the news itself that will impress me.
KANGAS: Are there any foreign markets you do like?
WEINSTEIN: This is what's really scary. There are no foreign markets -- I go through all the charts that are bullish and they (INAUDIBLE) . We're in a worldwide bear market and those are the most dangerous, reminds me very much of what we went through in 1973 and '74, which was a devastating bear market.
KANGAS: What about gold and gold stocks?
WEINSTEIN: Both of them have been bullish. But the gold stocks topped out last March. Gold bullion topped out this past July and turned bearish in August. There is really not a lot of places to hide. They're both in bear markets now, too.
KANGAS: Can you hide in bonds?
WEINSTEIN: Bonds are at least neutral which I think will win here and neutral, just stick with high-quality government bonds and I say, short- term maturities, five years or less.
KANGAS: Very interesting. Stan, we have about 30 seconds left. Any final thoughts for our viewers?
WEINSTEIN: I would say that they should learn from this terrible bear market that we're going through, that a simple buy and hold strategy is very dangerous to your investing health. I think you've got to keep looking at charts and when they turn negative, you can't fall in love with the stock. There is a time to buy and a time to sell. If they say sell, you got to sell.
KANGAS: So it is good for the brokers, too?
WEINSTEIN: And it's good for you, too.
KANGAS: Very good. Stan, it is great to see you and get your insight. Thanks very much.
WEINSTEIN: It's always my pleasure, also, Paul.
| Date | Achat | Neutre | Vente | Pression LT | Pression Short | |
|
19/09/08 |
31,7 |
24,8 |
43,5 |
|
42,11 |
57,89 |
|
26/09/08 |
14,0 |
27,1 |
58,9 |
|
19,23 |
80,77 |
|
03/10/08 |
29,6 |
14,5 |
55,9 |
|
34,65 |
65,35 |
|
10/10/08 |
0,0 |
0,0 |
100,0 |
|
0,00 |
100,00 |
|
17/10/08 |
5,1 |
0,7 |
94,3 |
|
5,13 |
94,87 |
|
24/10/08 |
0,0 |
26,1 |
76,8 |
|
0,00 |
100,00 |
|
Date |
Achat |
Neutre |
Vente |
|
Pression LT |
Pression Short |
|
22/08/08 |
12,11 |
71,74 |
16,17 |
|
42,82 |
57,18 |
|
29/08/08 |
35,58 |
61,62 |
2,82 |
|
92,66 |
7,34 |
|
05/09/08 |
2,37 |
18,62 |
79,03 |
|
2,91 |
97,09 |
|
12/09/08 |
30,95 |
16,61 |
52,46 |
|
37,11 |
62,89 |
|
19/09/08 |
31,66 |
24,83 |
43,53 |
|
42,11 |
57,89 |
|
26/09/08 |
14,03 |
27,08 |
58,92 |
|
19,23 |
80,77 |
|
03/10/08 |
29,64 |
14,50 |
55,89 |
|
34,65 |
65,35 |
En WEEKLY:
| Date | Achat | Neutre | Vente | Pression LT | Pression Short |
|
22/08/08 |
12,11 |
71,74 |
16,17 |
42,82 |
57,18 |
|
29/08/08 |
35,58 |
61,62 |
2,82 |
92,66 |
7,34 |
|
05/09/08 |
2,37 |
18,62 |
79,03 |
2,91 |
97,09 |
|
12/09/08 |
30,95 |
16,61 |
52,46 |
37,11 |
62,89 |
|
19/09/08 |
31,66 |
24,83 |
43,53 |
42,11 |
57,89 |
|
26/09/08 |
14,03 |
27,08 |
58,92 |
19,23 |
80,77 |
L'ADX - extrait interview Linda BR
"...Il faut attendre que cette volatilité soit à l’extrême, qu’elle commence à revenir et seulement à ce moment, on peut prendre des positions.
Quand on observe un renversement de volatilité, nous devons nous entraîner à prendre le marché et aller dans l’autre
sens.
Et quand, par exemple, il y a une baisse de marché forte et un extrême de volatilité, il faut se poser la question : « à quel moment je vais pouvoir
rentrer acheteur dans le marché ?» et ne pas se tromper de sens, ne pas se positionner vendeur.
Parce que souvent l’erreur que font la plupart des jeunes traders lorsqu’il y a un fort mouvement à la baisse, ils
attendent qu’une petite remontée se produise et essayent de vendre tout de suite après ; or, quand il y a eu un extrême à la baisse et que le marché a eu ce climat de vente panique, on
constate qu’il y a ensuite beaucoup de force acheteuse..."
Le niveau de l'ADX est monté à 66 , niveau extrême rarement atteind et qui piège la plupart des intervenants pensant que le marché va casser à la baisse le niveau des 4 000 pour aller
chercher les 3 840 points (retracement de 61,80 de fibo de toute la hausse 2003/2007 ). Les shorteurs continuent de penser à shorter, il suffit de regarder les forums pour se rendre
compte des inconditionnels ne se rendant pas compte que quelque chose à changé pour le moment .
Le seul sens malgré le fait que nous soyons sous la mm200 est de passer en position longue ( entorse à la rêgle cf Stan W) mais comme indices supplémentaires nous avions le chandellier du jour de
retournement, le V en intraday, et la situation de survente des marchés . Par exemple le cac40 était à - 20 % de sa mm200 ce qui est assez rare et invite à la prudence car indicateur observé
par les professionnels et le chiffre rond 4000 qui ns montre bien que ce marché est très technique et travaillé par des gros intervenants .
| Date | Achat | Neutre | Vente | Pression LT | Pression Short |
| 13/06/08 | 0,00 | 21,37 | 78,64 | 0,00 | 100,00 |
| 20/06/08 | 0,00 | 9,43 | 90,56 | 0,00 | 100,00 |
| 27/06/08 | 1,23 | 14,09 | 81,92 | 1,48 | 98,52 |
| 04/07/08 | 4,18 | 6,27 | 89,54 | 4,46 | 95,54 |
| 11/07/08 | 0,00 | 8,80 | 91,19 | 0,00 | 100,00 |
| 18/07/08 | 30,15 | 40,30 | 29,54 | 50,51 | 49,49 |
| Achat | Neutre | Vente | Pression LT | Pression Short |
| 66,84 | 23,66 | 9,49 | 87,57 | 12,43 |