short-term-trading

Friday, November 14, 2008


PAUL KANGAS: My guest "Market Monitor" this week is Stan Weinstein, editor and publisher of "Global Trend Alert," a financial advisory service for institutional investors. And Stan welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.

STAN WEINSTEIN, EDITOR & PUBLISHER, "GLOBAL TREND ALERT": Always my pleasure to be back, Paul.

KANGAS: When you were last with us in September of 2007, too long ago, the Dow was at 13, 400. You said the bull market was no longer healthy and warned if it broke below 12,800 on the Dow, bear would emerge and that was a great call. Congratulations.

WEINSTEIN: Thank you very much.

KANGAS: Now the question is: can you tell us if the market is in the bottoming process and ready for buying?

WEINSTEIN: Process is the right word. It takes time. So I think the process has started, but long-term, we're still bearish. I don't think that the bear has breathed its last. Short-term is a different thing. Short-term I think you may have hit a low this past Thursday and I'll give you two numbers to watch, but this is trading. If the Dow can close above 9800, I think for the first time in a heck of a long time, we'll get a good short- term rally. If it doesn't happen, conversely instead you close around 7800, another down leg.

KANGAS: What moving average is the most important one to follow under these conditions?

WEINSTEIN: There are two that I especially focus on. For long-term investing, I think the 200-day moving average is key. But for trading, I think the 50-day moving average is important. So I wouldn't use one. I'd combine the two together.

KANGAS: What stock groups do you think will lead the market higher when that time comes?

WEINSTEIN: We should only get there. I think that two groups - they're not bullish yet, but two groups which I think have seen their bear market lows, irrespective if the Dow goes there, are the airlines and the banks which you know I was bearish on before. Some select regional banks and some airlines and some select healthcare stocks look like they're starting to base, but they're not yet officially bullish. They're basing.

KANGAS: Back in September of last year, you didn't like the retailers, either and look what's happened then. There must be a time to buy.

WEINSTEIN: Well again, very, very split groups. Some retailers selectively are bullish, but there's a lot of retailers - when the charts are doing their thing, you've got to look chart by chart.

KANGAS: What else would you stay away from in the way of stock groups?

WEINSTEIN: There is no longer such a matter of groups because the groups (INAUDIBLE) like the oils, the fertilizers, they've destroyed them. But there are a lot of individual stocks that aren't too late to sell and here's where the charts do their think. If you have a stock that's close to its 200-day moving average starting to break down, I think that's still saleable, but (INAUDIBLE).

KANGAS: As you know, the G-20 leaders are meeting in Washington this weekend. What would you like to come out of that summit on the financial crisis?

WEINSTEIN: First of all, I'm a cynic, so I don't expect too much. But secondly, I'm a technician so I care less about what they say and it's how the market reacts to the news more than the news itself that will impress me.

KANGAS: Are there any foreign markets you do like?

WEINSTEIN: This is what's really scary. There are no foreign markets -- I go through all the charts that are bullish and they (INAUDIBLE) . We're in a worldwide bear market and those are the most dangerous, reminds me very much of what we went through in 1973 and '74, which was a devastating bear market.

KANGAS: What about gold and gold stocks?

WEINSTEIN: Both of them have been bullish. But the gold stocks topped out last March. Gold bullion topped out this past July and turned bearish in August. There is really not a lot of places to hide. They're both in bear markets now, too.

KANGAS: Can you hide in bonds?

WEINSTEIN: Bonds are at least neutral which I think will win here and neutral, just stick with high-quality government bonds and I say, short- term maturities, five years or less.

KANGAS: Very interesting. Stan, we have about 30 seconds left. Any final thoughts for our viewers?

WEINSTEIN: I would say that they should learn from this terrible bear market that we're going through, that a simple buy and hold strategy is very dangerous to your investing health. I think you've got to keep looking at charts and when they turn negative, you can't fall in love with the stock. There is a time to buy and a time to sell. If they say sell, you got to sell.

KANGAS: So it is good for the brokers, too?

WEINSTEIN: And it's good for you, too.

KANGAS: Very good. Stan, it is great to see you and get your insight. Thanks very much.

WEINSTEIN: It's always my pleasure, also, Paul.

 

En weekly:

Date	Achat	Neutre	Vente		Pression LT	Pression Short
22/08/08	12,11	71,74	16,17		42,82	57,18
29/08/08	35,58	61,62	2,82		92,66	7,34
05/09/08	2,37	18,62	79,03		2,91	97,09
12/09/08	30,95	16,61	52,46		37,11	62,89
19/09/08	31,66	24,83	43,53		42,11	57,89
26/09/08	14,03	27,08	58,92		19,23	80,77
03/10/08	29,64	14,50	55,89		34,65	65,35

L'indicateur ressort toujours en pression short à 65,35 %

avec 29,64 % à l'achat  - 14,50 % en neutre et 55,89 % vente

Celà signifie que la tendance générale est vendeuse, le vivier des neutres n'étant pas assez étoffé pour faire basculer du coté des longs.

Comme toujours dans un marché baissier la nervosité des intervenants est élevée et l'on assiste parfois à de brusques déccalages.

Le support à surveiller : 3 840  pour un éventuel rebond ( être attentif des bougies sur ce niveau ).

Exemple de trade sur ST Micro graphe en hebdo:

Impulse hebdo :achat

Ordre achat stop sur cassure ligne du cou 8,70 + 5 cents

Stop loss 7,97 ( 3 ATR 20 ) du point d'entrée.

Target théorique : 11,23 ( placé sur retracement  50 % à 10,89 ) .
RR  : 3,1 fois

Ordre en attente sur pullback pour renforcer .


 






Suite le 11/09/2008


Renforcé ce jour sur pullback.
Nous étions sur une grosse zone de support volume. Suite au retracement l'impulse hebdo est en zone neutre autorise donc un éventuel achat.

Achat stop sur plus haut veille + 0,05 cents à 8.58 stop loss 7,97 target 10,85

Graphe en J :




Le 27/09/08

  
Le stop loss a été actionné le 23/09/08, il faut passer à autre chose. 

Le 22 c'était critique mais je n'ai pas voulu changer le plan. il est certain que se positionner à la hausse  ds un marché baissier !!

Mais j'aime bien les doubles creux alors voilà , disons qu'il n'était pas nécéssaire de se renforcer .

En weekly:

Date	Achat	Neutre	Vente	Pression LT	Pression Short
13/06/08	0,00	21,37	78,64	0,00	100,00
20/06/08	0,00	9,43	90,56	0,00	100,00
27/06/08	1,23	14,09	81,92	1,48	98,52
04/07/08	4,18	6,27	89,54	4,46	95,54
11/07/08	0,00	8,80	91,19	0,00	100,00
18/07/08	30,15	40,30	29,54	50,51	49,49

L'indicateur en ressort en pression LT 50,51 %
 30,15 % achat  - 40,30 % neutre et 50,51 % vente

Celà signifie que la tendance générale est passée neutre en hebdo et autorise à être soit long ou short.

Le vivier des neutres c'est donc  étoffé et  sugère un retournement de tendance.

Toujours comme dans un marché baissier la nervosité des intervenants est élevée et l'on assiste parfois à de brusques déccalages, pas mal de rachat de short ces derniers jours.

Par contre en day on  assiste à un début de rebond :

Achat	Neutre	Vente	Pression LT	Pression Short
66,84	23,66	9,49	87,57	12,43

Je suis passé long dès jeudi matin après l'ouverture, beau gap sur le cac ce qui permet de trader avec un beau point d'invalidation.